We may be getting close to “the end” of the Federal Reserve’s (“Fed”) interest rate hiking cycle. This week, the Fed increased the Funds Rate 75-basis points (a basis point equals 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%). The Fed has increased rates 3.00% since March of this year from a range of 0.00% to 0.25% to 3.0% to 3.25%. But when will the Fed stop raising rates or reach the so called “Terminal Rate”. There’s been quite a bit of talk about the “Terminal Rate”, but what exactly is it and why should you care.
According to Market Watch, the Terminal Rate is “the peak spot where the benchmark interest rate — the federal funds rate — will come to rest before the central bank begins trimming it back.” The key questions going forward are 1) how quickly Fed will get to there, and 2) how long they will stay there.
Based on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed “expects”...
ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls missed consensus estimates … by a lot.
The January ADP National Employment Report posted an unexpected 301,000 decline in nonfarm private sector payrolls, the first monthly decline in just over a year. Consensus estimates were for a 210,000 increase in January payrolls.
Making matters worse, the December increase in payrolls was revised down from 807,000 to 776,000, while the November payrolls increased 496,000, revised down from 505,000. ADP suggests the decline was "due to the effect of the Omicron variant."
While the decline was a huge miss, what’s more concerning is the trend. The November and December downward revisions suggest the economy is weakening. It’s too soon to tell whether the trend is a temporary decline, which will improve as the Omicron variant peaks across the country, or if there’s more systemic issues at play.
Keep a close eye on the January Nonfarm Payroll report, if its consistent with the ADP print, could...