ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls missed consensus estimates … by a lot.
The January ADP National Employment Report posted an unexpected 301,000 decline in nonfarm private sector payrolls, the first monthly decline in just over a year. Consensus estimates were for a 210,000 increase in January payrolls.
Making matters worse, the December increase in payrolls was revised down from 807,000 to 776,000, while the November payrolls increased 496,000, revised down from 505,000. ADP suggests the decline was "due to the effect of the Omicron variant."
While the decline was a huge miss, what’s more concerning is the trend. The November and December downward revisions suggest the economy is weakening. It’s too soon to tell whether the trend is a temporary decline, which will improve as the Omicron variant peaks across the country, or if there’s more systemic issues at play.
Keep a close eye on the January Nonfarm Payroll report, if its consistent with the ADP print, could it result in a shift in the Feds plans to increase rates this year? If so, there may still some time to refinance.